This is the third installment of the The COVID-19 Response in North America series.

As holiday cases surge, this article will cover Montreal, Ecatepec de Morelos, and Los Angeles to complete the set of cities introduced in the series opener.

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Quebec’s capital is managing COVID-19 while making progress towards reducing its already-dwindling crime and homelessness. With approximately 1.9 million people, Canada’s second-most populous city currently has approximately 55,000 cases as of December 11, which is nearly seven times greater than the approximately 8,900 cases reported in Ottawa.

With only 10 percent more people than its capital city but seven times more COVID-19 cases, Montreal’s handling of the pandemic necessitates a deeper look into its urban composition. Montreal’s urban area is approximately 500 square miles, significantly greater than Ottawa’s 200 square miles of urban land area. However, Montreal’s city and metro area is 166 and 1,700 square miles respectively, dwarfed by Ottawa’s 1,000 square miles of city area and 2,100 square miles of metro area. Montreal’s more compact city area but larger urban sprawl reveals a compressed zone of interaction, and may explain the significantly greater COVID-19 affliction rate.

Alongside Ottawa and Toronto’s push for stricter lockdown measures, Montreal is implementing tighter tourism bans and reduced commercial services. According to the Hotel Association of Montreal, 2019 saw an 85% hotel occupancy rate as Montreal welcomed 11.1 million tourists. Despite growth in its tourism industry, Montreal is following national measures and is implementing activity restrictions similar to Toronto’s. However, Montreal’s response is not universally swift, as the pandemic has affected Montreal's bureaucratic efficiency, with 2019 crime statistics “filed very late to City Hall this year.” The noted uptick in violent crimes is attributed to changes in police crime filing notations, and requires 2020’s annual crime statistics to complete a baseline comparison.

Ecatepec de Morelos

Home to the headquarters of juice giant Jumex, Ecatepec de Morelos finds itself dealing with a morbid fatality rate beyond its historic femicide rates. With more than 14,000 recorded cases and approximately 2,200 deaths, COVID-19 mortality in Ecatepec de Morelos is 15 percent. Compared to Mexico City’s approximately 245,000 cases and 14,000 deaths—a 5.7 percent mortality rate—Ecatepec de Morelos’ COVID-19 handling is dangerously out of touch.  

With a population of approximately 1.7 million, Ecatepec de Morelos’ inclusion in this series’ analysis is based on its population both as a city and municipality, a unique dual-designation in Mexico. The city covers approximately 60 square miles, making it roughly the same size as D.C., and significantly smaller than Mexico City. Even though Ecatepec de Morelos is denser than Mexico City, its ratio of COVID-19 cases to population is not linear. With 5.7 times less recorded cases but nearly nine times less the population, Ecatepec de Morelos is an example of how population density, affliction rate, and mortality are not necessarily interchangeable. A confounding variable could be how supporting a larger population applies pressure on infrastructure policy for tourism or health care, as a certain living capacity cannot be fundamentally supported without a minimum level of care.

A 15 percent mortality rate reflects both the need for improved primary care access and the ongoing need for accessible and transparent data beyond COVID-19 statistics. The number of hospital beds per capita or even municipal health expenditures would be fair points of examination to compare different cities’ capacity to respond to the pandemic.

Los Angeles

Home to 4 million people, Los Angeles has recorded approximately 475,000 cases and 8,000 deaths as of December 11, compared to the approximately 24,000 cases and 700 deaths recorded in the District of Columbia. There are 20 times the number of COVID-19 cases in Los Angeles than in D.C., but only 4 times the number of city inhabitants. As one of the most populous cities in North America, it would be fair to expect a higher frequency of recorded COVID-19 cases in Los Angeles. The city area is approximately 500 square miles according to the US Census and services a metro area of nearly 4,900 square miles, dwarfing D.C. in city area but falling short compared to the 5,000 square miles of the DMV metropolitan area.

Before the pandemic, nearly 42,000 individuals were homeless in the city in 2019, and the rate is expected to rise according to the Los Angeles Homeless Service Authority (LAHSA). With more homeless than before, violent crime and crime against the homeless have increased as well, according to Crosstown. Despite the rise in homeslessness and crime rates, home sales in L.A. continue to grow, and the federal government has allowed for homelessness measurements to end in 2021.

The juxtaposition of a tent-city between Arnold Schwarzenegger’s gym and one of Google’s corporate offices reflects the disparity between social welfare and financial productivity. This disconnect demands a second look at available definitions of social well-being, and would build on the need for health care access established by Ecatepec de Morelos. Plotting generated income as altitude would likely reveal a gradual descent along the urban-to-metro edge, as rent traditionally increases closer to a city center. Higher-earning individuals are more likely to afford the increased rent, with homeless rows appearing as trenches or cuts on the surface area of reported income.

Transition to Framework Development

Capital cities act as a common denominator when comparing national and municipal policy responses within the same country, as capital cities may often be home to the intersection of both. Beyond comparing cities to their nation’s capitals, a comprehensive analysis requires comparing conditions before and during COVID-19. In the search for defining the features of the North American urban condition, pre-existing deficiencies and strengths reveal themselves through the pandemic resolution process, and provide a foundation for developing an analysis framework.

Canada’s ban on optional travel and tightening on border entry from the United States is representative of its municipalities’ response. Though a nation’s agency may be separate from its cities and municipalities, a national response may be the banner under which local policies follow. Ottawa and Toronto maintain a frequently updated online resource for COVID-19 statistics changes to public service, and the same can be said of Montreal.

A city’s response to the pandemic itself may constitute a feature of the urban condition, with Canada’s municipal COVID-19 dashboards and Mexico’s INEGI agency setting the example for top-down regional data availability. The ability to identify a problem, track any and all available data, and deliver publicly available information is telling of a city’s problem-solving capabilities.

Measuring an immediate response by a nation or city is not as comprehensive as examining the sustained efforts over a period of time. As Mexico improves its response to COVID-19 in urban environments, Los Angeles and Montreal both have shown cracks in the bureaucratic response. Delaying crime filings and suspending homelessness reporting nine months after the introduction of COVID-19 could be signs of policy fatigue.

Across all North American cities mentioned, physical characteristics have shown to play an important role in the spread and management of COVID-19. Population density in the city area alone is not granular enough, as metropolitan and sprawl areas invite interactions beyond city limits. Homelessness, home sales, and crime together may be used to plot the value of living in a city, but additional data such as current employment and funding for health public services need to be examined.

To obtain a better understanding of resident and tourist sentiment alike, a systematic and inclusive program of analysis needs to be implemented. The final article in this series will provide an overview of the physical characteristics and policy decisions that comprise North American urban features, and provide a framework to assess COVID-19’s impact in the future.

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Satvik Mishra is a resource economist at the United States Department of Agriculture, where he conducts economic analysis and regulatory policy development for the USDA and other agencies. Satvik is completing his Masters in Urban and Regional Planning at Georgetown University, and is interested in sustainable land-use, green infrastructure, and urban welfare. He hopes to combine his expertise in algorithm design, resource economics, and policy development to further understand and maintain a healthy urban environment.