This article is part of a series on COVID-19 in North American cities.

The COVID-19 pandemic has now breached 50 million cases, and resulted in over one million deaths. To better understand how COVID-19 has affected urban welfare in North America, a city-by-city public service lens will focus on homelessness and tourism in some of the countries’ most frequently visited cities: Toronto, Guadalajara, and New York City.

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Toronto

The hometown of the NBA’s 2019 Championship team continues Canada’s exemplary form in COVID-19 data tracking and transparency. However, the diligently-provided data shows that Toronto has more than four times the number of reported cases and deaths while having three times the number of residents than Ottawa. It now stands at 34,608 cases and 1,460 deaths as of November 14.

With a population of approximately  2.7 million people, Toronto welcomes an estimated 27.5 million tourists a year and has approximately 10,000 homeless in the city. Currently under “red-control” or stringent measures, indoor dining, fitness, casinos, and meetings are banned. Postal services remain open under strict mask mandates and reduced occupancy, while schools’ openings are based on local COVID-19 cases, with provisions for remote learning and reduced occupancy. Attractions such as the CN Tower, Royal Ontario Museum, and the Toronto Zoo currently offer timed-entry tickets while the Hockey Hall of Fame and the Toronto History Museums allow reduced-capacity admission. Revenue information has yet to be released but it is highly unlikely these attractions experienced significant occupancy during the summer, let alone the currently-mandated 70% occupancy.  

Alongside activity zoning, Toronto has implemented a three-tier response based on prevention, mitigation, and recovery for homelessness, with the last step of recovery beginning as early as April 16th. The prevention tier includes temporary housing facilities, with 3,600 people relocated since March 2020 so far. Toronto’s relocation response is a marked increase in rehousing efforts, as there are approximately 75 shelters now compared to the 40 shelters available previously. The mitigation tier focuses on physical distancing measures, such as staggered meal times and rapid COVID-19 testing. 

Guadalajara

While the ever popular tequila trains in the capital of Jalisco have stopped, COVID-19 has not. As of November 14, the recorded number of COVID-19 cases has increased by 13 percent since November 11, to approximately 37,749 cases, while the recorded number of deaths has increased one percent, from 4,434 to 4,479. Meanwhile, the number of recorded cases in Mexico City has increased by nearly 30 percent in that same time period.

Guadalajara city-proper is home to 1.46 million and nearly 5 million residents comprise the greater metropolitan area, which is four times less than the approximately 21 million residents in Mexico’s capital city. The airports of Jalisco see nearly 2 million international passengers a year, and 4 million passengers total.  Most public services in Guadalajara are amenities that cater to Guadalajara’s tourist economy and its role as a business hub for Mexico. The state of Jalisco has shut most of its business activities down, with education being remotely administered and reduced capacity for essential business activities. However, the one area that was initially closed was Puerto Vallarta, the second largest bay in North America that sees millions of visitors a year. The “emergency button” in Jalsico’s biggest attraction was pressed just recently, on October 30.  Hotels in Puerto Vallarta are recommended to be at 50 percent capacity, with disease prevention measures in place for transportation and supermarkets, and essential businesses may remain open past 8:30 PM. The lockdown in Puerto Vallarta is part of Jalisco’s “statewide activity restriction” and follows a recent spike in COVID-19 cases.

Unlike its North American counterparts, Guadalajara’s response to homelessness is built off of its recent interventions. While there is a lack of state information on COVID-19 and homelessness statistics, visible efforts can be seen through the construction, maintenance, and renovation of “El Cadipsi,” the city’s rehousing project located in the business center. The total number of homeless persons in Guadalajara range from approximately 1,200 to 3,000, but El Cadipsi has already housed more than 4,000 over two years, as well as incorporating a three to six month labor and social reintegration program. 

New York City

New York City is returning to a stricter lockdown as the city’s COVID-19 count increases again to approximately 287,000 cases and 24,000 deaths, with color-coded zones for Staten Island, Brooklyn, and Queens. While no portions of New York City are in the “red-zone” currently, Staten Island is a new addition to the “yellow-zone,” and is indicative of the growing number of cases. Home to approximately 8.4 million people, New York City attracts approximately 65 million people a year. This tourist-to-resident relationship has prompted a growing demand for hotel rooms, with nearly 39 million rooms sold in 2019 at an approximate occupancy of 87.5 percent.

Compared to Toronto’s doubled-effort response to rehousing those without a home during COVID-19, New York City’s response is rather controversial. Rehousing the approximately 57,000 homeless individuals into hotels are met with frequent claims that “homeless [are] ruining the quality of life” by angered local residents. Endearing vocalizations of decreasing shelter occupancy exemplify that relocation and rehousing from New York City’s approximately 450 shelters will always be a complicated task. But COVID-19 has run rampant through an exposed population with pre-existing health conditions, and presents a risk matrix where an already vulnerable population in need may either remain forsaken, or be rehoused but potentially act as supplanted vectors for COVID-19. Fortunately, private citizens and organized efforts, such as Coalition for the Homeless, have stepped up to help, with a noticeable increase in outreach and online presence to secure shelter for those in need. 

Unlike the public reception to rehousing the homeless, demand for city parks has remained constant. Public restrooms and water fountains are open as well, though official park tours, “Discovery Walks,” sports programs, and public group volunteering are on pause. Schools in the color zones remain closed with remote learning, unless otherwise specified, and the subway system continues to operate with a mask mandate. According to NYCGo, indoor attractions such as museums and aquariums are to be 25% occupancy, including guests and workforce, with wellness and spas allowed a 50% capacity. Retail and dining facilities outside of the color zones are to follow physical distancing standards and 50% capacity.

Comparative Findings

Are public services tied to the tourism industry? Is COVID-19 better handled in cities that don’t rely on tourism? A retrospective hedonic analysis would be needed to statistically confirm if there is a relationship between a city desirable to visit and also one desirable to reside in.

In the meantime, New York City, with nearly eight tourists for every resident, sees the growing pressure to maintain a supply of open hotel beds as an opportunity to save and relocate the afflicted and vulnerable homeless. Toronto establishes that a tourist-viable city can increase the risk of COVID-19 transmission—even if its population and tourist numbers are significantly smaller than North America’s biggest tourist destinations. The smaller number of total active people also affords a lower density of human interaction, allowing reduced-capacity and timed-entry tickets as non-transmissive market choices to the Toronto public. When the population is small and comparable to the number of tourists attracted, an absolute and immediate measure may prove to be the most efficient for the local economy, like in Guadalajara. 

 Although it is privileged to write about pestilence and its effects on the already-vulnerable, the fact remains that the perspective allows for some of North America’s solutions to shine through. Measures such as timed-ticket access, hotel relocation, immediate closure, and publicly-sourced outreach are showing that they can help fill the gaps in North America’s different cities.

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Satvik Mishra is a resource economist at the United States Department of Agriculture, where he conducts economic analysis and regulatory policy development for the USDA and other agencies. Satvik is completing his Masters in Urban and Regional Planning at Georgetown University, and is interested in sustainable land-use, green infrastructure, and urban welfare. He hopes to combine his expertise in algorithm design, resource economics, and policy development to further understand and maintain a healthy urban environment.